Assessing the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite’s Yield of Rocky Planets Around Nearby M Dwarfs

Terrestrial planets are easier to detect around M dwarfs than other types of stars, making them promising for next-generation atmospheric characterization studies. The $TESS$ mission has greatly increased the number known dwarf that we can use perform population studies, allowing us explore how rocky planet occurrence rate varies with host radius, following in footsteps past work $Kepler$ data. In this paper, simulations assess $TESS$'s yield small ($0.5\,R_\oplus \,<\,R_p\,<\,2\,R_\oplus$) candidates nearby ($d\,<\,30$ pc) dwarfs. We highlight underappreciated fact while was indeed expected find a large overall, it not have high planetary latest Furthermore, detected fewer stars $R_*\,<\,0.3 R_\odot$ even (11 observed vs. $24\,\pm\,5$ expected). evidence photometric noise bandpass increases decreasing radius However, trend cannot explain distribution planets. Our main conclusions are: (1) likely doesn't increase, and may decrease dwarfs; (2) there at least 17, potentially three times number, transiting late still won't be by end 4th year.